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Retail Sales and Cargo-Container Volumes to Slow This Summer

As temperatures heat up this summer, retail sales are expected to cool down as consumers remain cautious about the economy.

“The weak cargo increases expected over the next few months are consistent with other signs that the economy is slowly improving but show that retailers remain cautious, especially when it comes to stocking their inventories,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation, a trade group in Washington, D.C., that represents all kinds of retailers, including chain restaurants. “We’re looking at barely 1 percent of year-over-year growth through the early summer, and August and September are expected to be basically flat even though they’re supposed to be two of the busiest months of the years.”

Gold’s observations were made after the NRF on May 14 released its monthly Global Port Tracker report, which monitors cargo-container volumes at the major ports in the United States. “With consumer confidence low, employment struggling to recover and less money in shoppers’ pockets because of the payroll-tax hike, we need to see action from Washington that will provide some fiscal certainty for families and businesses alike,” Gold added.

The Global Port Tracker report, prepared for the NRF by Hackett Associates, noted that March cargo volumes, at 1.14 million 20-foot containers, were down 8.6 percent from the previous year, and April’s traffic was estimated to have dipped 1.4 percent from a year ago, coming in at 1.29 million cargo containers. May is forecast to be up 3.3 percent from last year, and June should come in with a 1.4 percent increase.

Cargo volumes during the first six months of 2013 are predicted to rise 2 percent to 7.8 million cargo containers. The NRF said higher cargo volumes don’t always translate into higher retail sales because the value of the merchandise can vary.

The Global Port Tracker report charts volumes at ports in the Los Angeles/Long Beach area; Oakland, Calif.; and Seattle and Tacoma, Wash., on the West Coast. It also looks at traffic at the New York/New Jersey ports; Hampton Roads, Va.; Charleston, S.C.; Savannah, Ga.; Houston; and Miami and Port Everglades in Florida.