IMPORT / EXPORT

Imports Heat Up for Holidays

According to a recent National Retail Federation report, merchandise imports at the country’s major ports will be up 5.1 percent in September and 9 percent in October compared with last year.

“Retailers are making up for the slow imports seen earlier in the year,” said Jonathan Gold, the NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “It’s too early to predict holiday sales, but merchants are clearly stocking up.”

Ports followed by the NRF’s “Global Port Tracker” handled 1.48 million 20-foot containers in July, the latest month for which figures are available. That was a 1.1 percent rise compared with the previous July and follows year-over-year declines in three of the four previous months.

Volume in August was estimated to be at 1.48 million cargo containers, up 4.1 percent from the previous year. September is forecast to be at 1.48 million containers, a 5.1 percent increase. October should see about 1.46 million cargo containers passing through the ports, which is a 9.0 percent jump over last year, and November will see imports cooling off with 1.31 million cargo containers coming through the docks, which is a 2.2 percent increase over last year. December, traditionally a slow period for merchandise imports, will experience only 1.3 million cargo containers coming through the ports, a 0.7 percent improvement over last year.

Next year will start out on a positive note with January imports forecast to rise 1.9 percent over the same period a year earlier.

“The U.S. economy is on the road to sustained growth,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, which compiles the port report with the NRF. “Second-quarter GDP [gross domestic product] was well above expectations and surprised most forecasters, the unemployment picture is improving, and we believe consumer confidence will translate into increased sales during the fourth quarter.”