Black Friday Sales Were Great. Now What?

Promotion-driven Black Friday business has retailers waiting for the next holiday rush.

The weekend that began on Black Friday (Nov. 26) drew 212 million shoppers, who spent $45 billion, according to the National Retail Federation.

Many retailers said November sales exceeded their expectations. Clothing specialty stores enjoyed a particularly good Black Friday, according to Marshal Cohen, chief retail analyst at market-research firm The NPD Group. According to the NPD’s “Anatomy of Black Friday & Cyber Monday” survey, released Nov. 30, apparel specialty stores were the fifth-best-trafficked retailers during Black Friday weekend. “Friday was about door-busting deals, but Saturday and Sunday, consumers went to specialty stores,” Cohen said.

November’s stellar results could be the start of a strong holiday season, but the good news must be placed in context. “Last year was terrible. There is still a massive recession going on,” said Mark Werts, owner of prominent Los Angeles–based specialty chain American Rag. Compared with the awful business of 2009, every day is Black Friday, Werts said. Sales-driven

The chief attractions for Black Friday were promotions and great deals. According to NPD, 36 percent of shoppers said their purchases were primarily motivated by sales and promotions.

At the Glendale Galleria in Glendale, Calif., more than 75 percent of the mall’s tenants had sales offering at least 25 percent off the retail price. Gap offered 40 percent off of all of its styles from 4 to 10 a.m. on Black Friday, said Shoshana Puccia, marketing director of the Glendale Galleria.

But there was a downside to Black Friday’s promotions-driven traffic, said Gila Leibovitch, co-owner of the Premier Men shop in Los Angeles’ Beverly Center as well as six other boutiques with nameplates such as Vault Men and Vault Women, in Laguna Beach, Calif. After Black Friday, business dropped. “[Consumers] were only shopping if there was some sort of deal,” she said. “We offered 20 percent off in all stores, but shoppers disappeared after Black Friday. We have seen a decline in sales in all areas since Black Friday.”

Don Zuidema co-owner of veteran West Hollywood, Calif., boutique LASC, said he hopes better Christmas business will be spurred by more than hunger for a deal. “We find that customers are shopping for themselves right now, and they will really begin the gift shopping closer to the holiday.” The NPD survey confirmed Zuidema’s assertion. Thirty-five percent said they bought items for themselves on impulse on the big shopping day. Cold comfort

Popular Black Friday fashions were styles meant to ward off cold weather, said Mercedes Gonzalez, director of New York–based buying office Global Purchasing Companies. Knits were at the top of most stores’ lists. “Big sweaters and handmade knits, cashmere, and cottons are the big sellers,” she said.

At Premier Men, consumers were buying sweaters, scarves and button-up shirts. At Vault Women, consumers were stocking up on accessories, Leibovitch said.

At LASC, sweaters, wovens, knits were doing well, Zuidema said. “We are also keying in on accessories as impulse and last-minute purchases.”

NPD’s Cohen forecast the jeans business will increase at the end of the month. Since hot weather broiled much of the United States during the back-to-school season, stores sold mostly shorts and skirts. Weather has cooled, and many retailers still have a big inventory of jeans. “We’re going to see pent-up demand [for jeans] from the consumer,” Cohen said.

A struggling economy should help fashion sales, said Peter Kilduff, professor and chair of the fashion merchandising department at CSU Poly Pomona in Pomona, Calif. “In austere times, value-oriented consumers tend to seek out small-ticket indulgences, including upscale items to match with existing items in their wardrobe,” Kilduff said.Timing is everything

The calendar also might help and hinder sales for this holiday. The first night of the Jewish holiday of Hanukkah started on Dec. 1. “I think that an early Hanukkah will keep some of the momentum going,” said Liz Pierce, a retail analyst for Newport Beach, Calif.–based Roth Capital Partners.

Christmas, however, falls on a Saturday, and Jack Kyser, the economic adviser to the Southern California Association of Governments, wondered if consumers will miss out on a weekend of shopping at the end of the month. “Will people get the Friday before Christmas off?” Kyser asked. “How much free time will people have?”

Black Friday by the Numbers

Although many retailers kicked off the holiday season early, Black Friday—the day after Thanksgiving—remains the traditional start of the holiday shopping season.

This year, many retailers upped the ante on Nov. 26 with door-buster deals and promotions that lasted all weekend long. And the gambit paid off.

According to the National Retail Federation, shoppers spent an average of $365.34 over the weekend, compared with an average expenditure of $343.31 last year.

A survey by The NPD Group found most shoppers (51 percent) patronized mass merchants such as Wal-Mart. National chain stores such as JCPenney followed in popularity, landing 28 percent of the shoppers. Online shopping finished third, with 27 percent of consumer traffic. Rounding out fourth, fifth and sixth places, respectively, were electronics stores, specialty-apparel stores and toy stores.

NRF research also found that 24.4 percent of consumers surveyed said they shopped in a clothing store during the most recent Black Friday weekend, compared with 22.9 percent who shopped in a clothing store last year.