California Apparel News

The economic grinch may not steal retailers’ Christmas cheer just yet.

A host of shopping surveys released in the last month, including those from the National Retail Federation, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and Deloitte & Touche, predict that holiday sales will increase 3.0 to 5.6 percent, better than some industry observers had expected.

“Southern California is faring better than the nation as a whole, so I think we’ll fall in the middle of that range,” said Jack Kyser, chief economist at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., at a recent presentation at the Glendale Galleria in Glendale, Calif.

Still, achieving those results will be anything but easy.Along with flagging consumer confidence and jitters over war rhetoric, retailers have to contend with a shorter shopping season this year since Thanksgiving falls during the last week of the month. Retailers got a confidence boost with strong earnings reports from J.C. Penney and Federated Department Stores, Inc., parent of Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s, but most have cautious expectations for the holiday season.

As a result, some malls, including South Coast Plaza in Costa Mesa, Calif., are helping Santa Claus get a head start.

Santa will arrive at the mall Nov. 22 instead of the day after Thanksgiving, and marketing promotions are breaking earlier to let shoppers know of the new stores added to the mall, including Jimmy Choo, Dooney & Burke, Miss Sixty and the soon-to-open Ron Herman boutique. The mall’s seasonal advertising campaign will start Nov. 15, and the 300,000 copies of the center’s holiday catalog will go out in newspapers on Nov. 17, both a week ahead of last year.

“You’re always challenged between Thanksgiving and Christmas to get shoppers to start hitting the stores earlier, and this year we wanted to be even more proactive,” said Debra Gunn Downing, executive marketing director of South Coast Plaza.

Other retailers are giving shoppers more time to find their ideal gifts. Apple Stores, which have Los Angeles locations at the Glendale Galleria and the Grove shopping center, will stay open until midnight on Nov. 29, according to Allen Olivio, senior director of retail marketing at Apple. Olivio said the move is a nod to the 24/7 shopping availability on the Internet.

Indeed, competition from the Internet and lowerpriced discounters has put the squeeze on some retailers. May Department Stores Co. recently announced a 69 percent plunge in third-quarter earnings. Those kinds of results can spell doom for retailers during the make-or-break holiday season.

“There are a lot of companies that don’t have the financial stability to withstand a poor season,” said Richard Giss, a partner in the consumer practice at Deloitte & Touche.

To stay ahead of sales, Giss said retailers will enter the promotions game at the first sign of softness. Such sales may start sooner than later. According to a Deloitte & Touche survey of 13,000 U.S. households, more than onethird said they intend to spend less on gifts than last year.

So far, the early read on shopping trends indicates toys are topping holiday wish lists, especially those oozing nostalgia.

“We’re already blowing out of Care Bears plush toys, and Cabbage Patch Kids toys are moving quite well,” said Annette Bethers, marketing director of the Glendale Galleria. “I think parents who grew up with these toys are now purchasing them for their babies and toddlers.”

Macy’s West officials say a home-focused holiday is boosting sales in accent items such as chenille throws, pillows and candlesticks.

“The trend from the Millennium New Year of entertaining at home still continues, so people are traveling less and dressing up and throwing parties at home,” said Rina Neiman, spokesperson for the San Francisco–based chain.

Neiman points out that people aren’t overhauling their wardrobes or their furnishings with new couches; they’re simply adding unusual touches, which means people are eschewing big-ticket items for smaller indulgences.

Luxury fabrics such as cashmere sweaters, velvet dresses and embroidered tops inspired by the “Frida” movie also have provided a boost to sales, she said. The trend applies equally to men, who are purchasing velvet jackets, pants and coats in shades of black and chocolate.

Younger shoppers have responded favorably to the company’s handful of contemporary-oriented Impulse departments, carrying Anna Sui, Poleci, Seven and D&G. Macy’s plans to roll them out to about 30 stores in the next year.

“We’ve found that when shoppers want to spend money, they’re looking for something new and different to add to the wardrobe, not just another pair of pants,” Neiman said.