WTO Sees Uptick in Trade Volume This Year
Economists at the World Trade Organization see a bright future for trade this year.
The group, based in Geneva, predicts that trade volume around the world will expand 9.5 percent in 2010 after plunging 12.2 percent last year, the worst year on record since World War II. In dollar terms, trade declined 23 percent.
“We see a light at the end of the tunnel, and trade promises to be an important part of the recovery,” said WTO Director General Pascal Lamy.
Exports from developed economies are expected to rise 7.5 percent this year while shipments from other countries should do better, with an 11 percent increase.
WTO economists believe it will take another year or two for trade to reach 2008 peak levels.
Last year’s trade volumes were not thwarted by any protectionist measures, said the WTO, a group of 153 countries pledged to reduce trade barriers.
Instead, a collapse in the U.S. subprime mortgage market launched a worldwide economic trade decline that started to take hold in the fourth quarter of 2008.
Products that saw steep drops in trade included automotive products, iron and steel, machinery, textiles, and apparel.
Last year’s trade volume for the United States dipped nearly 14 percent, 15 percent for the European Union and almost 25 percent for Japan.—Deborah Belgum
